Macro at a Glance
Argentina's October 26 legislative elections became a pivotal test of President Javier Milei's economic policies. His La Libertad Avanza party achieved approximately 41% of the national vote, defying earlier polls suggesting weakened support. The market responded dramatically: the Merval index surged, bond prices increased as default risk diminished, and the peso strengthened against the dollar.
The US federal government shutdown beginning October 1 remained relatively contained. Markets treated it as temporary disruption rather than systemic change. The Congressional Budget Office estimated macroeconomic impact between $7-14 billion, compared to $11 billion from the 2018-2019 shutdown.
Japan's political transition saw Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba replaced by Sanae Takaichi, signaling a shift toward stimulus-focused policies. The new administration pledged a 13.9 trillion yen economic package, catalyzing the Nikkei 225 to surpass 50,000 for the first time historically.
One Sector, One Insight
Basic Materials and Energy
Precious metals experienced dramatic swings. Gold and silver reached record highs mid-month—gold peaked near $4,382 and silver above $54—driven by safe-haven demand. Late-month losses followed: silver fell 16%, gold declined 11%, triggered by Federal Reserve policy adjustments and US-China trade developments. Gold holding above $4,000 per ounce indicates structural profitability improvements for producers.
Consumption and General Public Services
Nestlé's new CEO announced 16,000 job eliminations over two years: 12,000 white-collar positions and 4,000 manufacturing/supply chain roles, representing approximately 6% workforce reduction. The announcement aimed to achieve three billion Swiss francs in savings. The stock rose 8% following the announcement.
Financial Services
First Brands Group filed bankruptcy September 29, with a bankruptcy judge authorizing $500 million immediate borrowing from a larger $1.1 billion emergency loan package. The situation highlighted vulnerabilities in receivables and supply chain financing, including verification gaps and ownership priority confusion. The US Department of Justice initiated investigation.
Healthcare
Novartis announced acquisition of biotech firm Avidity Biosciences for $12 billion, marking its largest deal in over a decade. The acquisition targets increasing compound annual growth rate from 5% to 6% through 2029. Third-quarter core earnings per share reached $2.25, up from $2.06 year-over-year.
Industrials
Ferrari revised downward its electrification targets: from 40% to 20% of models fully electric by 2030. Adjusted operating profit projections reached €2.75 billion by 2030—below analyst expectations of €3.2 billion. Revenue forecasts: €9 billion by 2030 versus analyst expectations of €10 billion. Shares declined 15% to €357 following announcements.
Technology and Network Equipment
October witnessed major AI infrastructure commitments:
- September 22: OpenAI and Nvidia announced 10GW deployment partnership with potential $100 billion Nvidia investment
- October 6: AMD unveiled 6GW supply agreement starting mid-2026, plus warrant for approximately 10% outstanding shares
- October 13: Broadcom and OpenAI announced 10GW custom accelerator collaboration through 2029; OpenAI extended CoreWeave contracts totaling $22.4 billion
- October 31: Microsoft formalized its 27% OpenAI stake
These agreements demonstrate capital-capacity linkages throughout the AI supply chain, though investors should monitor third-party demand signals to assess growth sustainability.
Stock of the Month
Nokia Oyj (NOKIA) surged 43.66% to $6.91 in October, driven by better-than-expected third-quarter results (October 23) and Nvidia's $1 billion investment for a 2.9% stake (October 28). The stock reached its highest level in nearly a decade.
Key Performances
| Index/Asset | October 31 Close | Monthly Change | Year-to-Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,840.20 | 2.27% | 16.30% |
| Dow Jones | 47,562.87 | 2.51% | 11.80% |
| NASDAQ | 23,724.96 | 4.70% | 22.86% |
| FTSE 100 | 9,717.25 | 3.92% | 18.89% |
| CAC 40 | 8,121.07 | 2.85% | 10.03% |
| DAX | 23,958.30 | 0.32% | 20.34% |
| SMI 20 | 12,234.50 | 1.03% | 5.46% |
| MSCI WORLD | 4,389.82 | 1.73% | 18.16% |
| VIX | 17.44 | 7.13% | 0.52% |
| CHF/USD | 1.2421 | -0.65% | 13.24% |
| CHF/EUR | 1.0770 | 0.76% | 1.24% |
| Brent Crude | $64.61/bbl | -3.18% | -14.45% |
| Gold | $4,010.30/oz | 4.61% | 54.18% |
Upcoming Events
- November 13: US CPI
- November 19: FOMC meeting transcript
- November 19: Nvidia Earnings