Macro at a Glance
The Trump administration established a new "Department of Government Efficiency" led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, targeting significant reductions in regulations, bureaucracy, and public spending. This initiative responds to concerns about the U.S. national debt reaching approximately 120% of GDP and the fiscal year 2024 budget deficit hitting $1.8 trillion.
U.S. inflation ticked upward during the month, representing the first occasion since February 2022 when the CPI, PPI, and PCE all rose simultaneously on an annual basis. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank would proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to achieve the 2% inflation target.
Argentina's monthly inflation declined to 2.7% in October 2024—the lowest in nearly three years—following President Javier Milei's stringent austerity initiatives. However, annual inflation remained elevated at 193%, and poverty affected over half the population amid ongoing recession and a 3.4% GDP contraction in the first half of 2024.
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah commenced on November 27, 2024, negotiated by the United States and France. The agreement included Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah repositioning north of the Litani River, with 5,000 Lebanese military personnel deployed to the buffer zone.
One Sector, One Insight
Basic Materials and Energy
The Eramet CEO underscored Chinese expertise and cost efficiency in nickel processing for battery production. Indonesia's dominance in global nickel production—currently 57% of refined nickel output—stems from substantial Chinese investment following a 2020 export ban, with projections reaching 69% by 2030.
Consumption and General Public Services
Walmart reported third-quarter 2024 results exceeding expectations: $4.58 billion in net profit and $169.59 billion in sales, representing a 5.5% year-over-year increase. The retailer raised full-year guidance to between 4.8% and 5.1% net sales growth. Stock performance surged 4% on November 19, with year-to-date gains of 75%, substantially outpacing the S&P 500.
Financial Services
UniCredit launched a €10.1 billion acquisition bid for Italian rival Banco BPM, intending to establish Europe's third-largest lender by market capitalization. This strategic shift by CEO Andrea Orcel follows political opposition to a potential Commerzbank takeover in Germany.
Healthcare
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s appointment as Secretary of Health raised concerns among health experts regarding vaccine confidence and public health policy. Shares in vaccine-focused pharmaceutical companies declined: Moderna dropped 5.6% and Novavax fell 7%.
Industrials
Northvolt's bankruptcy underscored challenges for European EV battery manufacturers competing against Asian dominance. Despite raising over $15 billion from prominent investors including Volkswagen and Goldman Sachs, production failures and unmet targets resulted in cancelled contracts, including a $2 billion BMW deal.
Technology and Network Equipment
Hindenburg Research accused Super Micro Computer of accounting irregularities and undisclosed related-party dealings in August 2024. Ernst & Young subsequently resigned as auditor in October over governance concerns. The stock fell 60% before recovering 100% in late November following BDO USA's appointment and Nasdaq compliance measures.
Stock of the Month
MicroStrategy acquired an additional 55,500 bitcoins in November 2024, bringing holdings to approximately 386,700. Despite Citron Research's "overvalued" assessment citing Bitcoin dependence risks, the stock gained 52% monthly, propelled by Bitcoin appreciation. The company maintains an $89 billion market capitalization against $470 million in sales and over $400 million in losses.
Key Performances (As of November 30, 2024)
| Index/Asset | Value | Monthly Change | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6032.38 | +5.73% | +27.19% |
| Dow Jones | 44910.65 | +7.54% | +19.08% |
| NASDAQ | 19218.17 | +6.21% | +30.15% |
| FTSE 100 | 8287.30 | +2.18% | +7.33% |
| CAC 40 | 7235.11 | -1.57% | -3.93% |
| DAX | 19626.45 | +2.88% | +17.04% |
| SMI 20 | 11764.20 | -0.24% | +5.32% |
| MSCI World | 3810.14 | +2.52% | +20.22% |
| VIX | 13.51 | -41.67% | +2.35% |
| CHF/USD | 1.1339 | -1.67% | -4.54% |
| CHF/EUR | 1.0728 | +0.92% | -0.37% |
| Brent Crude | $72.09/bbl | -1.17% | -6.47% |
| Gold | $2650.35/oz | -4.44% | +28.47% |
Upcoming Events
- December 11: U.S. Inflation Rate
- December 12: ECB Interest Rate Decision
- December 17: German Ifo Business Climate Index
- December 18: Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Economic Projections