Macro at a Glance
The United States has reasserted global influence through geopolitically significant interventions. Following Nicolás Maduro's removal from Venezuela, new privatization laws enabled immediate oil sector opening; however, deteriorated infrastructure constrained production recovery, with ExxonMobil maintaining cautious positioning despite favorable legislation. The shift directly affected Cuba by eliminating subsidized supply channels, prompting Washington to implement a "wedge" approach intended to economically pressure the Cuban government while expanding private sector access to U.S. banking.
President Trump initiated an aggressive tariff campaign, leveraging Greenland negotiations to secure dual objectives: military guarantees for the "Golden Dome" missile defense system and access to strategic rare earth minerals. These developments underscore how geopolitical calculations increasingly intertwine security and resource acquisition.
Iran's situation has deteriorated significantly, with economic collapse and hyperinflation driving mass demonstrations. U.S. policymakers reportedly contemplate direct military intervention, while simultaneously targeting the regime's financial resources by sanctioning the Zedcex cryptocurrency exchange—"a significant development" recognizing that "digital assets have become a crucial financial resource for the IRGC."
On January 27, the European Union and India finalized long-delayed free trade negotiations covering approximately 96.6% of traded goods by value, strengthening supply chain resilience amid geopolitical fragmentation. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism remains operative, maintaining "green trade frictions" on carbon-intensive exports including steel and cement.
President Trump announced on January 30 his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair successor to Jerome Powell when Powell's tenure concludes in May. Warsh, a former Fed governor (2006-2011) regarded as an inflation hawk, has recently suggested rate reductions may be justified. Markets responded immediately: the S&P 500 declined 0.43%, the Nasdaq 0.94%; the dollar index strengthened 0.57%, while 10-year Treasury yields rose approximately 2.4 basis points. "Inflation hedges" experienced substantial corrections—gold fell over 10% and silver declined 28% intraday.
One Sector, One Insight
Basic Materials and Energy
Glencore and Rio Tinto confirmed preliminary merger discussions on January 9, 2026, regarding a proposed all-share transaction exceeding $260 billion, creating the world's largest mining entity surpassing BHP. The consolidation targets copper asset concentration to satisfy accelerating demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure and energy transition initiatives. The combined entity would produce approximately 1.7 million tonnes of copper annually. Significant obstacles include Glencore's coal portfolio and antitrust clearances across multiple jurisdictions.
Consumption and General Public Services
A health alert regarding infant formula disrupted Danone and Nestlé in January. Market reactions materialized sharply on January 20-21: Danone experienced approximately 12% intraday decline in Paris following Singapore Food Agency action against an affected batch, while Nestlé declined more moderately (roughly 3%). This incident reflects broader customer confidence erosion and segment difficulties, with infant nutrition representing 21% of Danone's revenue and 5% of Nestlé's.
Financial Services
U.S. financial services equities encountered substantial January 2026 volatility as President Trump advanced dual-front credit card industry regulatory initiatives. Mastercard shares fell 6.3% mid-January, with Visa and American Express also declining sharply, following the President's proposal for a one-year, 10% interest rate ceiling—substantially below the current 24% national average. The administration formally endorsed the reintroduced Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA), mandating banks exceeding $100 billion in assets to provide alternative "swipe" fee processing networks. JPMorgan Chase cautioned that a 10% cap could eliminate credit availability for 80% of Americans and devastate rewards programs; however, certain analysts anticipate regulatory pressure may redirect investor capital away from issuers like Capital One toward processing networks insulated from interest rate exposure.
Healthcare
Merck & Co. pursued acquisition negotiations with biotechnology firm Revolution Medicines, a developer of oncology pharmaceuticals, potentially valued between $28 billion and $32 billion. Discussions centered on accessing Revolution's late-stage experimental cancer treatments, including daraxonrasib. Merck terminated acquisition discussions in January 2026 after failing to reach purchase price agreement. Industry reports suggest these negotiations could potentially resume or attract alternative buyers, particularly as Revolution's forthcoming clinical data announcements for cancer drug candidates shape future valuations.
Industrials
Czech defense manufacturer Czechoslovak Group completed its initial public offering on Euronext Amsterdam on January 23, 2026. The enterprise manufactures ammunition and defense equipment across European, American, and additional regional facilities, servicing customers in over 70 countries. The offering comprised new and existing shares, including an over-allotment option, representing approximately 15.2% of post-IPO issued capital. The IPO generated approximately €3.8 billion in gross proceeds, pricing shares at €25 each and valuing the company at €25 billion at listing. Major institutional investors (BlackRock, Artisan Partners, Al-Rayyan Holding) supported the offering with €900 million in combined investments. Shares increased 31.4% upon debut trading, reaching €32.85 and generating market capitalization exceeding €30 billion. The listing represented "the largest IPO for a pure-play defence company on record and one of the largest European IPOs in recent years."
Technology and Network Equipment
Meta Platforms and Microsoft reported elevated artificial intelligence infrastructure and data-center expenditures during their latest earnings cycles. Meta's quarterly results demonstrated record revenue, prompting positive investor reaction with share prices increasing 8-10% following releases. Microsoft's earnings exhibited increased AI capital expenditures and revenue expansion; however, share prices declined 10-12% during the corresponding period, reportedly stemming from investor apprehension regarding heavy AI spending and cloud growth falling short of expectations.
The Stock of the Month
SanDisk shares delivered a historic 109% January return, closing at $576.25. The stock has appreciated over 1,400% since its February 2025 Western Digital spinoff, driven by a worldwide "storage supercycle" that analysts suggest could create multi-year supply constraints. The rally culminated in a substantial Q2 earnings release on January 29. Revenue surged 61% year-over-year to $3.03 billion, while adjusted earnings per share of $6.20 substantially exceeded the $3.54 consensus estimate. Growth was primarily driven by a 64% sequential data center revenue increase as hyperscalers accelerated acquisition of high-performance NAND for artificial intelligence "factories." Management's Q3 guidance projecting $12–$14 earnings per share on revenue reaching $4.8 billion indicates structural margin expansion, with gross margins anticipated to reach record 65-67% levels.
Key Performances
| Name | As of January 31 | Monthly change | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P500 | 6939.03 | 1.37% | 1.37% |
| Dow Jones | 48892.47 | 1.73% | 1.73% |
| NASDAQ | 23461.82 | 0.95% | 0.95% |
| FTSE100 | 10223.54 | 2.94% | 2.94% |
| CAC40 | 8126.53 | -0.28% | -0.28% |
| DAX | 24538.81 | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| SMI20 | 13188.26 | -0.60% | -0.60% |
| MSCI WORLD | 4527.59 | 2.19% | 2.19% |
| VIX | 17.44 | 16.66% | 16.66% |
| CHF/USD | 1.2927 | 2.48% | 2.48% |
| CHF/EUR | 1.0910 | 1.60% | 1.60% |
| Brent $/bbl | 69.32 | 11.95% | 11.95% |
| Gold Spot $/oz | 4895.12 | 13.36% | 13.36% |
Upcoming Events
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