Macro at a Glance
Germany's February 23rd federal elections reflected widespread economic dissatisfaction. Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU secured 28.5% support, while the AfD achieved a historic 20.8%—indicating "population's distrust of the traditional parties." Chancellor Scholz's SPD plummeted to 16.4%, marking "its worst score since the Second World War." The incoming coalition faces urgent demands to revive Germany's two-year recession and implement structural reforms.
Chinese technology stocks demonstrated exceptional performance early in 2025, driven by Deep Seek's emergence and renewed recognition of China's AI capabilities. The "Terrific Ten"—Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Tencent, NetEase, Xiaomi, BYD, Geely, Baidu, and SMIC—averaged 28% growth, outpacing American counterparts.
President Trump intensified diplomatic efforts regarding Ukraine. Following February 12th videoconference discussions with Zelensky, Trump suggested conditioning military assistance on Moscow negotiations. By late February, negotiations over a $500 billion rare earth minerals agreement deteriorated, culminating in a contentious Oval Office confrontation that suspended planned discussions.
One Sector, One Insight
Basic Materials and Energy
Elliott Management acquired approximately 5% of BP (valued at £3.8 billion) on February 13th, advocating asset disposals and reduced renewable energy investments. The activist fund emphasized BP's underperformance: share appreciation of "5.8% in 5 years" versus Shell's 65.7% and TotalEnergies' 50.6%. However, 48 institutional investors representing 2.5% of capital demanded shareholder votes before climate target modifications. BP's share price rose up to 10% following the announcement.
Consumption and General Public Services
Walmart's Q4 2024 earnings exceeded expectations with 4.1% revenue growth to $180.55 billion, yet cautious forward guidance triggered a 6% stock decline. Management cited inflation and potential tariffs as primary concerns. Broader consumer sentiment weakened to an eight-month low, signaling economic hesitancy despite resilient retail performance.
Financial Services
HSBC announced major restructuring initiatives on February 19th under new CEO Georges Elhedery, targeting $1.5 billion annual savings by 2026. Restructuring costs reached $1.8 billion across two years, involving reduced investment banking across Europe and North America, including mergers and acquisitions elimination. This followed October's decision separating Eastern and Western market operations.
Healthcare
Citadel established a £305 million short position against GSK in February 2025, representing 0.51% shareholding. The hedge fund questioned GSK's ability achieving £40 billion annual revenue targets by 2031, particularly given impending patent expirations for HIV medication dolutegravir. Despite an 11% share price increase and £2 billion buyback, concerns persist regarding pipeline development and Zantac litigation exposure.
Industrials
European defense companies achieved exceptional performance driven by increased military budgets and geopolitical tensions. Rheinmetall shares rose 37.5% monthly due to armored vehicle and ammunition demand. Thales and Dassault Aviation recorded respective increases of 24.3% and 16.2%, supported by export contracts and advanced defense system requirements. BAE Systems gained 4.2% following British military budget announcements reaching 2.5% GDP allocation. Leonardo increased approximately 31.9% as European nations pursued independent military capabilities.
Technology and Network Equipment
Nvidia released impressive February 26th results: fourth quarter revenues reached $39.3 billion (78% year-over-year growth) with net income of $22.1 billion (80% growth). The data center division generated $35.6 billion through robust Blackwell artificial intelligence chip demand. First quarter 2026 guidance anticipated $43 billion sales, exceeding analyst forecasts. Despite record results, shares declined 8.5% the following day amid trade tension and semiconductor competition concerns.
The Stock of the Month
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) narrowly avoided Nasdaq delisting on February 25th by submitting outstanding financial reports. Share volatility characterized the month: opening at 27.20, peaking February 18th at 66.40 (+144%), and closing at 41.46 (+52%).
Key Performances
| Index/Asset | February 28 Close | Monthly Change | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 5954.50 | -1.87% | 1.24% |
| Dow Jones | 43840.91 | -2.25% | 3.05% |
| NASDAQ | 18847.28 | -4.49% | -2.40% |
| FTSE 100 | 8809.74 | 3.23% | 7.79% |
| CAC 40 | 8111.63 | 2.71% | 9.90% |
| DAX | 22551.43 | 5.23% | 13.27% |
| SMI 20 | 13004.48 | 4.41% | 12.10% |
| MSCI World | 3803.90 | -1.21% | 1.61% |
| VIX | 19.63 | 19.62% | 13.14% |
| CHF/USD | 1.1066 | 0.46% | 0.88% |
| CHF/EUR | 1.0668 | 0.93% | 0.39% |
| Brent $/bbl | 73.03 | -5.03% | -1.60% |
| Gold Spot $/oz | 2867.30 | 4.74% | 10.02% |
Upcoming Events
- March 12: US CPI
- March 20: FedEx earnings (alternative US consumer confidence indicator)
- March 25: FOMC Meeting